Prediction by Soft Computing, Planning, and Strategy Building of Aquatic Catch: Chilika Lagoon, Odisha, India

Introduction: The Chilika lagoon in south Odisha, India was ecologically degraded from 1985 onwards by reduction of its aquatic (fish + prawn + shrimp) catches along with reduction in salinity, hydraulic regime, water exchange, aquatic weeds invasion, and sediment influx. The aquatic catch was 8669MT in year 1985-1986 gradually reduced to 1274MT during 1995-1996 from Odisha Fisheries Dept. records which resulted in poor economic condition of ≈0,2million fishermen and they migrated to adopt other livelihood. One direct tidal inlet dredged (Sipakuda) and Naraj barrage in the apex of South Mahanadi Delta were the major hydraulic interventions made to regain hydraulic regime. After the hydraulic interventions, the eco system restored, and the aquatic catch surged but it was insufficient to livelihood sustenance for the fishermen community of the Chilika, so that they are forced for alternate occupation and migration.

Methodologies: Fish catch data collected for 30 years and soft computing models linear regression, Multi Linear Perception (ANN), SMOorg (SVM) and the Random Forest algorithms (Weka Software) are used to predict the fish catch data of the lagoon for coming decade from 2020 to 2030. The effects of major hydraulic interventions are analyzed and the soft computing method of the fish and shrimp catch prediction of the Chilika has been attempted for the first time except some statistical approaches.

Results: The Random Forest is found to be the preferred algorithm followed by the MLP model. The amount of catch remained around 12-13TMT if the variables and the present status of the lagoon is maintained. The combined effect of the Sipakuda Tidal inlet and the effective operation of the Naraj barrage have maintained the sustainable aqua catch. The present study shall be an immense help for the lake users and policy makers to augment aquatic catch, and alternate livelihood fishers community of the Chilika lagoon.