Epidemiology of Malaria Cases in India: A Statistical Analysis

In this paper we studied the state-wise patterns of transmissibility of prevalence of malaria epidemic in India, using yearly time series data for the period 2001 to 2013. The data for the study was obtained from different reports of National Vector Borne Disease Control Programme (NVBDCP), Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Government of India. The time series data was initially analyzed by using the Confidence Interval and Chi square tests. We have also used the Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) and a post hoc Tukey HSD tests to analyze the geographical differences between means of prevalence rate of malaria.

The result of the study reveals that prevalence rate of malaria shows a decreasing trend for the study period from 2001 to 2013 in India. Further, ANOVA test has shown a significant difference between the prevalence rates of malaria across different states in India, even though a decreasing trend was noted over the study period from 2008 -2013. Also eight homogenous subgroups were formed by using post hoc Tukey HSD test, in which four states viz. Mizoram, D & N Haveli, Arunachal Pradesh and Meghalaya had the highest prevalence of malaria as compared to other states of India; Delhi, Bihar, Himachal Pradesh, Kerala, Jammu & Kashmir, Lakshadweep, Sikkim, Punjab, Puducherry and Uttarakhand had the lowest prevalence rate. The results of this study can be of critical importance as different authors attempt to explore novel approaches to investigate the geographic variation in disease occurrence.