Forecasting Solar PV Demand Split and Fuel Wood Usage Reduction in Eriti and Oke-Agunla Villages in Nigeria

The study examined solar photovoltaic demand split and fuel wood usage reduction in Eriti and Oke-Agunla villages, that were among the pilot sites for solar electrification programs in the western ecological region of Nigeria. It used questionnaire techniques to elicit information in the local dialect of the respondents, on alternative energy sources for provision of energy services from each of the household's heads, representing solar PV users, in all the 371 households that constitute about 13.4 percent of the 2,778 dwellers in the two villages, for the base year 2020. Specifically, at the rate of the observed 8 dwellers per household, data were obtained from 179 respondents, out of a total of 1,434 dwellers in Eriti village. Likewise, at the rate of the observed 7 dwellers per household, data were also obtained from 192 respondents, out of a total of 1,344 dwellers in Oke-Agunla village. Model for Analysis of Energy Demand (MADE-II) was used for the study. The study showed that the total lighting demand share for solar PV in each of the villages’ total energy demand mix in 2020 was insignificantly low at 5.1 percent share in Eriti village and 6.1 percent share in Oke-Agunla village. Contrariwise, firewood demand maintained as high as 94 and 92 percent share for Eriti and Oke-Agunla villages respectively in the total energy demand mix and by 2030, in Oke-Agunla village, 3-stones-firewood stoves demand for cooking fell drastically from 77% to 30% share, whereas improved firewood stoves demand for cooking rose astronomically from 11% share in 2020 to 45% share by 2030. Nigerian government should adopt such best policy intervention scenario for all the rural areas in the country.